Sources

Where these numbers come from

We would rather lose a scary stat than keep one we cannot back up. Every claim on this site now points to real research or is written to match exactly what the evidence supports. No prop firm publishes audited pass or payout rates, so where the public data runs out, we say so instead of inventing a number.

Every claim and its basis

What we say	Where it appears	The evidence	Confidence
The large majority of retail and day traders lose money over time.	Home, Reality, site wide	Barber and Odean found only about 1 percent of Taiwan day traders were reliably profitable after fees. Chague and colleagues found 97 percent of Brazilian futures day traders who lasted past 300 days lost money. EU regulators found 74 to 89 percent of retail CFD accounts lose money.	High
Most people who start cannot sustain it, and most quit.	Reality	Barber and Odean found about 40 percent of day traders quit within a month, only 13 percent were still trading after three years, and 7 percent after five years.	High
Prop firm evaluations are a fee business, and the fees add up fast.	Home, Reality	In its 2023 complaint, the CFTC stated one firm collected about $310 million in fees from more than 135,000 customers, roughly $2,300 each. That case was later dismissed over regulator misconduct, so we cite it only for the scale of fee revenue, not as proof of wrongdoing.	Medium
Most accounts fail on risk and sizing, not on a lack of winning trades.	Reality, Tools	This is risk of ruin math, which our own survival simulator runs in front of you. It is a modeled result you can reproduce, not a survey figure.	Medium

We will not state an exact prop firm pass rate or payout rate, because no firm publishes audited numbers and we do not have access to them. Anyone who gives you a precise percentage for that is guessing. If you have a better source for anything here, email us and we will update or remove the claim.

What we are confident about

The large majority of retail traders lose money over time. The research is consistent across markets and decades.
Most people quit within months.
Sizing and risk control drive blow-ups more than entry skill.
Evaluation fees are real money and they compound across resets.
The math in our tools is transparent and you can read it.

What we are not certain about

Exact prop firm pass percentages.
Exact prop firm payout percentages.
Any single firm's internal numbers. We do not have audited access and we will not pretend we do.

How our tools calculate

Position sizer. Uses your stop distance, account rules, and the risk percent you choose to return a contract count. No hidden assumptions. A 10 tick stop on a $50,000 account with a 1 percent risk rule returns the exact contract count that keeps the loss inside that 1 percent. We do not adjust the math to make the answer look better.

Survival simulator. Runs many simulated accounts on the win rate and average R you enter, then reports the share that pay and the share that blow up. You choose the edge. If your expectancy is negative, the tool says so plainly.

Try the tools

References

1
Barber, Lee, Liu, and Odean. Do Day Traders Rationally Learn About Their Ability?
Taiwan day traders. About 1 percent reliably profitable after fees. About 40 percent quit within a month, 13 percent still trading after three years, 7 percent after five.
https://faculty.haas.berkeley.edu/odean/papers/Day%20Traders/Day%20Trading%20and%20Learning%20110217.pdf
2
Chague, De-Losso, and Giovannetti. Day Trading for a Living? (2020)
Brazilian equity index futures, 2013 to 2015. Of those who persisted past 300 days, 97 percent lost money. Only about 1.1 percent earned more than minimum wage.
https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3423101
3
ESMA 2018 product intervention on CFDs
National regulators found 74 to 89 percent of retail CFD accounts lose money. CFD is not futures prop, but it is the closest regulator-audited analog for retail leveraged trading.
https://www.esma.europa.eu/press-news/esma-news/esma-agrees-prohibit-binary-options-and-restrict-cfds-protect-retail-investors
4
CFTC press release 8771-23 (August 28, 2023). Traders Global Group / My Forex Funds
Complaint stated about $310 million in fees from more than 135,000 customers, roughly $2,300 each. The case was dismissed in 2025 after findings of regulator misconduct. Cited only for fee revenue scale, not as proven fraud.
https://www.cftc.gov/PressRoom/PressReleases/8771-23